Gold volatility by hour follows a clear daily pattern. In our XAUUSD M15 data from July 2022 to September 2026, the busiest hour was 19:00 IST and the quietest was 02:00 IST, with the 19:00 hour moving about 3.6× as much in percentage terms. The 18:00–21:00 IST block, when US data and the New York open overlap London, stands well above the rest of the day.
How we measured gold volatility by hour
We took about 98,000 fifteen-minute XAUUSD candles from broker data and converted broker server time to IST, with US daylight saving handled. For each IST clock hour we measured the average high-low range: the distance between the highest and lowest price in that hour.
We show each range in dollars of gold price, which is what you feel on your stop, and as a percentage of price, which is fairer over time because gold roughly doubled over the period. A $10 hour in 2022 and a $10 hour in 2026 are not the same size of move.
XAUUSD average range for every IST hour
| IST hour | Avg range ($) | Avg range (% of price) |
|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 8.4 | 0.26% |
| 01:00 | 6.9 | 0.21% |
| 02:00 | 5.1 | 0.15% (quietest) |
| 03:00 | 6.0 | 0.18% |
| 04:00 | 7.4 | 0.21% |
| 05:00 | 8.8 | 0.26% |
| 06:00 | 11.6 | 0.35% |
| 07:00 | 10.1 | 0.31% |
| 08:00 | 8.7 | 0.27% |
| 09:00 | 6.4 | 0.20% |
| 10:00 | 7.1 | 0.22% |
| 11:00 | 10.2 | 0.32% |
| 12:00 | 9.2 | 0.30% |
| 13:00 | 9.6 | 0.31% |
| 14:00 | 8.7 | 0.28% |
| 15:00 | 8.3 | 0.27% |
| 16:00 | 8.4 | 0.27% |
| 17:00 | 10.3 | 0.33% |
| 18:00 | 14.3 | 0.47% |
| 19:00 | 16.6 | 0.55% (busiest) |
| 20:00 | 15.1 | 0.49% |
| 21:00 | 11.5 | 0.37% |
| 22:00 | 9.5 | 0.31% |
| 23:00 | 8.9 | 0.28% |
The average of all hours was $9.5, or 0.30%. Only four hours in the day, 18:00 to 21:00 IST, came in at 0.37% or more.
The day in four blocks
Grouped into blocks, the pattern is easier to remember:
- Late night, 01:00–04:00 IST: 0.15–0.21%. The quietest part of the day.
- Asian morning, 05:00–10:00 IST: a bump at 06:00–07:00 IST (0.35% and 0.31%), then a fade to 0.20% by 09:00.
- European day, 11:00–17:00 IST: steady, mostly 0.27–0.33%.
- US session, 18:00–00:00 IST: the peak, 0.47–0.55% from 18:00 to 20:00, then easing back towards 0.28% by 23:00.
Why 18:00–21:00 IST is the busiest time for gold
Three things stack up in this window.
- US economic data. Many major US releases come out at 08:30 New York time. That is 18:00 IST during US summer time and 19:00 IST in US winter time. In our data, the 08:30 NY M15 candle averaged 2.1× a normal candle across all days.
- The New York open. US stocks open at 09:30 New York time, and 10:00 NY is another common release time. Both averaged about 2.0× a normal M15 candle.
- London is still open. The US morning overlaps the London afternoon, so the two main centres of gold trading are active together.
Because the US clocks change and India's do not, the hot hour shifts by one hour across the year. That is part of why 18:00, 19:00 and 20:00 IST all rank high. For exact release times, see our guide to gold news events in IST.
Why 02:00–04:00 IST is so quiet
This block sits around the daily close and rollover. Many brokers roll the trading day at 17:00 New York time, which is 02:30 IST in US summer time and 03:30 IST in winter. Around that point, liquidity thins, many desks are closed and spreads are typically wider.
Quiet does not mean safe. A thin market with a wide spread can still fill a stop at a poor price, so check your broker's spread at that time.
The Asian bump at 06:00–07:00 IST
The 06:00 IST hour averaged 0.35%, higher than any hour in the European session. It lines up with the first hours of Tokyo trading and the start of the Asian day, when the market reacts to anything that happened while it was quiet. Activity then fades through 09:00–10:00 IST before Europe arrives.
Our guide to the best time to trade gold in India covers the sessions in more detail.
Gold volatility has risen every year since 2023
The hourly pattern is only half the story. The typical hour has grown.
| Year | Avg hourly range | Avg daily range |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $4.3 (0.25%) | $24 (1.41%) |
| 2023 | $4.1 (0.21%) | $24 (1.22%) |
| 2024 | $5.9 (0.24%) | $33 (1.38%) |
| 2025 | $11.2 (0.32%) | $61 (1.72%) |
| 2026 (to Sep) | $22.8 (0.50%) | $125 (2.73%) |
In dollar terms, the average daily range in 2026 was about 5.2× the 2023 figure ($125 ÷ $24). Part of that is a higher gold price, but even in percentage terms the 2026 daily range was about 2.2× the 2023 level (2.73% ÷ 1.22%). Gold is not just more expensive. It is moving more.
Does the day of the week matter?
Much less than the hour. Average daily range by weekday across the whole period was: Monday 1.61%, Tuesday 1.60%, Wednesday 1.64%, Thursday 1.70%, Friday 1.75%. Thursday and Friday were slightly busier, but the gap is small.
How to use hourly volatility in your trading
Size positions for the hour
If you use a fixed stop in dollars, the same stop means different things at different hours. With gold above $4,000, here is simple arithmetic using the percentage table:
- 02:00 IST average range: 0.15% × $4,000 = $6
- 19:00 IST average range: 0.55% × $4,000 = $22
A $10 stop sits outside a normal 02:00 IST hour but inside a normal 19:00 IST hour, where ordinary noise can hit it.
The fix is to size from the stop, not the other way round. On a $10,000 account risking 1% ($100), a $22 stop gives $100 ÷ ($22 × 100) ≈ 0.045, so 0.04 lots. A $6 stop gives $100 ÷ ($6 × 100) ≈ 0.167, so 0.16 lots after rounding down. The risk stays at $100 either way. Our gold lot size calculator does this maths for you.
Expect wider stops in 2026 than in 2023
A stop that made sense in 2023 may be too tight today. Our own model places stops at structure, and in the four-year hypothetical backtest the median stop was about $23 of gold price, with 90% under about $73. With daily ranges now much larger, structure-based stops are wider in dollars, which means smaller lots for the same risk. More on this in our article on gold stop loss placement.
FAQ
What is the most volatile hour for gold in IST?
In our XAUUSD data from July 2022 to September 2026, 19:00 IST was the busiest hour, averaging 0.55% of price. The 18:00–21:00 IST block as a whole was the most active part of the day. It covers US data releases and the New York open while London is still trading.
When is gold least volatile?
The quietest hour was 02:00 IST, averaging 0.15% of price. It falls around the daily close and rollover, when liquidity is thin. Spreads are typically wider then, so quiet does not mean cheap to trade.
Is gold more volatile in 2026 than before?
Yes, in our data. The average daily range was 2.73% of price in 2026 (to September) against 1.22% in 2023. In dollars, the average day moved about $125 in 2026 against $24 in 2023.
Should I only trade gold in the busiest hours?
Not necessarily. Busy hours bring more movement but also more slippage and wider stops. Pick hours that suit your strategy and schedule, then size for that hour.
This article is educational and not financial advice. Trading gold and leveraged products carries a high risk of loss.
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