The next Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting runs on 27–28 October 2026, and the policy statement is due at 2:00 pm New York time on Wednesday 28 October, which is 23:30 IST. After raising rates on 16 September, the Fed now faces a market that has swung sharply on whether it will hike again. Here is the timing, the scenarios, and how to manage open trades.
When is the October 2026 Fed meeting in IST?
| Item | New York time | IST |
|---|---|---|
| Meeting days | Tue 27 – Wed 28 Oct 2026 | Tue 27 – Wed 28 Oct 2026 |
| Policy statement | 2:00 pm, Wed 28 Oct | 23:30, Wed 28 Oct |
| Press conference (usually 30 minutes later) | 2:30 pm, Wed 28 Oct | 00:00, Thu 29 Oct |
US clocks are still on summer time until Sunday 1 November 2026, so this meeting keeps the summer timing of 23:30 IST. India does not change its clocks. From 2 November, every New York-based time moves one hour later in IST, and an FOMC statement shifts from 23:30 to 00:30 IST. Our guide to the US clock change and new gold trading times in IST has the full before-and-after table.
The UK changes its clocks a week earlier, on 25 October 2026. That does not change the 23:30 IST statement time, but for about a week the gap between London and New York is one hour shorter, so London-based session times look different that week.
Where the Fed stands going into October
Markets react to surprises, so context matters.
- On 16 September 2026 the Fed raised rates by 0.25 percentage points to a 3.75–4.00% target range. It was the first increase since 2023. The Fed Chair is Kevin Warsh.
- US CPI for August 2026 was 3.4% year on year and 0.4% month on month. Oil above $100 a barrel, tariffs and heavy AI-related capital spending were cited as inflation pressures.
- The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.2% in late September, the highest since 2007.
- On 28 September 2026 gold futures settled at $4,135.40, down 3.52% on the day. For the full story of the drop, see why is gold falling?
The odds swung sharply
Expectations for October moved a long way in a few days:
- Around 27–28 September, futures-implied odds of an October hike were roughly 64–70%.
- By 2 October, CME FedWatch showed about 17%, and prediction markets priced a hold as the most likely outcome.
These figures can change daily, as new data and Fed comments arrive. Check the latest odds in the days before 28 October rather than relying on any article, including this one.
This matters because gold's price already reflects what the market expects. An expected decision often moves price less than a surprise.
Hike vs hold: how gold usually reacts
We do not forecast the decision or the price. But the usual mechanics are well understood. Gold pays no interest, so higher rates and higher real yields tend to weigh on it, and a firmer dollar often adds pressure.
| Scenario | What it would mean | Usual first reaction in gold |
|---|---|---|
| Hold, patient tone | Rate stays at 3.75–4.00%, little hint of more hikes | Often supportive if a hold was expected; relief can be modest because it was priced in |
| Hold, hawkish tone | Rate unchanged, but the statement or press conference keeps hikes on the table | Often negative; yields and the dollar can rise |
| Hike of 0.25 points | Range moves to 4.00–4.25% (3.75 + 0.25 and 4.00 + 0.25) | Often negative, and larger if the market had priced a hold |
| Dovish surprise | Clear signal that tightening is done | Often positive; yields and the dollar can fall |
A few cautions about this table:
- The first move is not the final move. Gold often spikes one way on the statement, then reverses during the press conference 30 minutes later.
- Tone matters as much as the decision. A "hold" with firm language about inflation can hit gold harder than a hike that was fully expected.
- Other forces still apply. Central-bank buying, geopolitics and positioning can all change the picture. Our guide to trading gold when the Fed is raising rates looks at the bigger playbook.
How big are FOMC candles on gold?
We measured 15-minute candles on XAUUSD broker data from July 2022 to September 2026, about 98,000 candles. The 14:00 New York candle is about average on most days, because most days have no Fed decision. But 17 of the 33 largest 14:00 New York candles fell on Wednesdays, and FOMC decisions come on Wednesdays.
Two examples:
- 16 September 2026 (Fed hike day): the 14:00 New York candle was about $60.
- 17 September 2025: about $56.
For comparison, the average M15 candle over the whole period was $4.75. A $60 candle is more than twelve times that ($60 ÷ $4.75 ≈ 12.6). A stop that looks comfortable at 23:00 IST can be hit within one bar at 23:30. Our guide to gold news events in IST covers NFP and CPI timing too.
How to manage open gold trades through FOMC
You do not need to guess the decision. You need a plan you set before 23:30 IST.
- Decide in advance: hold, reduce or close. Choose before the spike, not during it. A trade already at breakeven is easier to hold than a fresh position at full risk.
- Size down. If you plan to hold through the statement, risk less than usual. Assume your stop could slip, because in a fast market it can fill at a worse price than you set.
- Avoid new entries right before 23:30 IST. The last few minutes before the statement combine wide spreads with a coin-toss direction. There is no edge in that.
- Expect spread widening. Spreads often widen around the release. A stop or limit order can trigger on the spread even if the chart price barely touches it.
- Wait for structure after the release. If you want to trade the reaction, let at least the first M15 candle close, and ideally wait for the press conference to finish. Then look for a clear market structure shift rather than chasing the first move.
- Check prop firm rules. Some firms restrict trading in a window around high-impact news. Check your firm's current rules, and use our prop firm risk calculator to see how much a spike could cost against your daily loss limit.
What a rule-based model does around the Fed
Our model enters on M15 after a higher-timeframe imbalance, a rejection and a market structure shift, and it often holds trades for days. That means some trades are open when the Fed speaks. Stops sit at structure rather than tight to price, which gives room for normal spikes but cannot prevent slippage on extreme moves. If you follow Pulse Signals, every signal, including losses, is logged automatically on our live results page, so you can see how trades fared through past Fed weeks.
FAQ
What time is the Fed decision on 28 October 2026 in IST?
The FOMC statement is due at 2:00 pm New York time on Wednesday 28 October 2026, which is 23:30 IST. The press conference usually follows 30 minutes later, at about 00:00 IST on Thursday 29 October.
Will the Fed raise rates in October 2026?
No one knows in advance. Around 27–28 September futures-implied odds of a hike were roughly 64–70%, but by 2 October CME FedWatch showed about 17%. These odds change daily, so check them close to the meeting.
How does a Fed rate hike affect gold?
Higher rates usually raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest, and often support the dollar. Both tend to weigh on gold. The size of the move depends on how much of the decision was already expected.
Should I close my gold trades before FOMC?
That depends on your plan and risk tolerance. Many traders reduce size, avoid new entries just before 23:30 IST and expect wider spreads. Decide before the release, not during it.
This article is educational and not financial advice. Trading gold and leveraged products carries a high risk of loss.
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